NASA Crew-7 - L-3 Days
Falcon 9
Valid Period
Aug 25, 2023 07:44 - 07:55 UTC (03:44 - 03:55 ET)
Issued
Tue Aug 22, 2023 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)
Forecast Discussion
The southeastern US and Florida will be on the downstream side of a mid to upper-level ridge over the Central US through the week with an upper-level trough just to the east over the Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will slide through the northeastern US and out into the Atlantic into Thursday. The result for the Spaceport will be deep easterly flow, tapping into drier air and keeping rain and storm chances low. The best chance for showers and storms will be Wednesday, as the high moving offshore pushes a front down the east coast and an upper-level disturbance retrogrades southwest across the state. This will likely bring an east-northeast wind surge along with a modest increase in moisture and better, though still below normal, chances for Atlantic showers into Thursday. There are some discrepancies in how far south this band gets by Thursday night, but even the more enthusiastic scenarios suggest that any activity would be in the form of low topped Atlantic showers, making the Cumulus Cloud Rule the weather concern going into the primary launch window early Friday morning. High pressure will weaken across the state as the next front settles across the Deep South and eventually North Florida into the weekend. Weakening east-northeast flow and drier than normal conditions will continue to bring a small threat for Atlantic showers, which will remain the primary weather concern into the backup windows early Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Primary Launch Date
Primary Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Ascent Corridor Recovery | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Opportunities
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Ascent Corridor Recovery | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Ascent Corridor Recovery | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |