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SES 18 & 19 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Mar 17, 2023 23:28 - 00:26 UTC (19:28 - 20:26 ET)

Issued

Thu Mar 16, 2023 at 13:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Cool, dry air is in place as high pressure remains control for the next several days. Tomorrow, the next cold front will begin to approach Florida from the west, and the high will retreat into the Atlantic. The front will be draped over the Florida Panhandle by the evening. This set up will bring southerly winds, shifting southeasterly and becoming gusty in the late afternoon and evening behind the sea breeze. While there is little risk of a Lightning Launch Commit Criteria violation, the near surface Liftoff Winds will be the primary concern during the launch window. For the backup day on Saturday, launch weather conditions will deteriorate as the front approaches East Central Florida. While there is still some discrepancy among the models regarding the front’s exact position, it is likely that showers, storms, and increased cloud cover will be in the area. The POV is higher for the backup day, with the primary concerns being the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Surface Electric Fields Rule, and Thick Cloud Layers Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

35%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow