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Starlink 6-19 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Sep 29, 2023 22:28 - 02:28 UTC (18:28 - 22:28 ET)

Issued

Thu Sep 28, 2023 at 17:00 UTC (13:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A weak frontal boundary will continue to sag southward into the central part of the state so expect another round of widespread showers and storms this afternoon through the evening hours. For launch day, the boundary will continue to slowly move southward, however, models aren’t in full agreement as to how far. Nevertheless, the Space Port will likely see at least some drying in the atmosphere. Primary concerns will be the Anvil Cloud Rules and the Cumulus Cloud Rule associated with any showers and storms that form along the frontal boundary. For the backup day, the boundary makes little southward progression and may even pull back to the north. Stronger easterly flow across the Cape will shift the focus to onshore moving showers and therefore the Cumulus Cloud Rule will be the primary concern.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

35%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow