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Starlink 6-3 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 19, 2023 04:26 - 07:58 UTC (00:26 - 03:58 ET)

Issued

Wed May 17, 2023 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A late-season boundary is approaching northern Florida today, increasing the moisture and instability over the peninsula. This will create increased shower and thunderstorm chances along the Space Coast during the afternoon and evening. A similar set up is expected tomorrow with the addition of a weak circulation center forming along the boundary stalled across Central Florida. This will cause the convection to linger into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, producing possible Anvil, Debris and Cumulus Cloud Rule violations at the Spaceport. Most guidance indicates the circulation center will move north through the day Friday, allowing any afternoon convection to dissipate by the back-up opportunity’s launch window overnight Friday into Saturday. The primary launch weather concerns are the Anvil and Cumulus Cloud Rules that may be slow to dissipate overnight.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Debris Cloud Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow