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Starlink 6-4 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 1, 2023 11:04 - 13:56 UTC (07:04 - 09:56 ET)

Issued

Mon May 29, 2023 at 15:00 UTC (11:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A rainy pattern will return to Florida starting late Wednesday and extend through at least Saturday. This is due an upper-level trough that will deepen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, combined with a surface trough over south Florida and associated low developing along it sometime mid to late week. Deep onshore flow bringing unseasonably high moisture values and instability from troughing aloft will cause scattered showers and a few storms moving onshore around the Spaceport in the morning on the primary launch day, with numerous thunderstorms focused inland in the afternoon and evening. On Friday the pattern remains the same, though coverage is expected to be higher, with a deepening surface low somewhere around South Florida or the Bahamas, and the upper-level trough axis moving into the Florida peninsula. Both days, scattered to broken mid-level cloudiness is expected to move in from the west, downstream of the upper-level trough axis, bringing a slight secondary Thick Cloud Layers concern.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

45%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow