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PSYCHE - L-1 Day

Falcon Heavy

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Valid Period

Oct 12, 2023 14:11 - 14:21 UTC (10:11 - 10:21 ET)

Issued

Wed Oct 11, 2023 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Very active weather expected over the next few days as the area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico moves towards the northern Gulf coast. This will allow the formerly stalled boundary across South Florida to move northwards as a warm front with Spaceport weather deteriorating later today. Widespread heavy rain and storms will be overspreading the area as south-southwest winds become windy into tonight. Strong to severe storms are not out of the question late tonight into Thursday morning. The front will likely take the best rain chances north of the Spaceport by the primary launch window mid Thursday morning, but strong winds, lingering clouds, and storms in the vicinity will still pose launch concerns. The main low will push into the Atlantic Thursday evening dragging the boundary back into Central Florida for Friday. Models differ a bit on exactly how far it gets, but the trend has been towards just enough to shift Spaceport weather into a more diurnal pattern with best chances for showers and storms later in the day. The late morning backup launch window looks to be before coverage increases, but it will be unsettled enough that early activity can’t be ruled out along with anvils from any ongoing storms to the west. The frontal system will merge with a larger northern system by the weekend, with the next cold front into the state on Saturday. Showers and storms preceding the front are expected to be on doorstep for the backup window Saturday morning.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

20%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityLow