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ViaSat-3.1 - L-1 Day

Falcon Heavy

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Valid Period

Apr 28, 2023 23:24 - 00:31 UTC (19:24 - 20:31 ET)

Issued

Thu Apr 27, 2023 at 00:30 UTC (20:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Significant severe threat is waning across the Spaceport with the strongest storms expected to be offshore by late evening. Squall line moving towards the west Florida coast is expected to arrive just after midnight, lingering through much of the overnight hours. Severe threat looks minimal with this line as it falls part on its trek east, but gusty winds will not be out of the question. Friday will be another active day as an area of low pressure tracking across the Mid-South pulls a frontal boundary into Florida. The boundary will bring activity moving from west to east towards the Spaceport by midday and continuing through the afternoon. Most activity may be just south or offshore of the Spaceport by the start of the backup window but given current uncertainty would expect at least lingering debris clouds and anvils through the window. The active pattern continues into Saturday as a very well-defined upper-level shortwave crosses into the Gulf with yet another weaker disturbance rolling into the state ahead of it. Not too dissimilar from other days this week, showers and storms will get going by midday as both sea breezes get going enhanced by the upper-level support. The east coast seabreeze will remain closer to the coast due to increased westerly flow, so coverage will favor areas near the Spaceport. Similar to Friday, convection may be winding down leading into the backup launch window Saturday evening, however lingering debris clouds and anvils will remain a concern.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Debris Cloud Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherN/A
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherN/A
Solar ActivityLow