Back to Forecasts

ViaSat-3.1 - L-2 Days

Falcon Heavy

View PDF

Valid Period

Apr 26, 2023 23:24 - 00:31 UTC (19:24 - 20:31 ET)

Issued

Mon Apr 24, 2023 at 13:30 UTC (09:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The first in a series of upper-level disturbances is kicking across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The combination of this upper-level feature moving through Florida and two stalled boundaries north and south of the Spaceport will bring an active weather day across the Spaceport by this afternoon. It will be a little quieter on Tuesday with seabreeze driven activity, before the next upper-level disturbance arrives on Wednesday. Storms will develop with the east coast seabreeze Wednesday afternoon, likely lingering around the Spaceport into the start of the primary evening launch window. Depending on exactly how quickly the upper-level feature moves through, there is the potential for improving weather towards the back side of the window. These storms will be the primary weather concern for launch with the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Lightning Rule, and Surface Electric Fields Rule a concern among others. Models have slowed down the approach of the next upper-level trough, though its approach brings the stalled front to the north into the Spaceport into the afternoon. It still looks like an active afternoon and early evening with showers and storms still on tap. Evening storms will remain the primary weather concern for the backup window with the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Surface Electric Fields Rule, and the Anvil Cloud Rules.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Lightning Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherN/A
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Anvil Cloud Rules
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherN/A
Solar ActivityLow