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Axiom-3 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jan 17, 2024 22:06 - 22:17 UTC (17:06 - 17:17 ET)

Issued

Tue Jan 16, 2024 at 16:30 UTC (11:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A stormy day is ahead for the Spaceport as a weak area of low pressure moves into North Florida and pulls a cold front through the peninsula later today. Cold and dry air will filter in behind the front on Wednesday as high-pressure slides across the southeastern US. No significant weather launch weather concerns are expected with an increasing stratocumulus deck as winds veer onshore. The post-frontal high will slide off the southeastern US on Thursday, allowing local winds to veer out of the south-southeast. A weak inverted trough developing just off the east coast along with another warm front creeping north from South Florida will introduce small chances for showers to the Spaceport. With the airmass remain generally dry, these chances will be low, but will introduce a slightly higher chance for Cumulus Cloud Rule violations as well as Flight Through Precipitation. The forecast for Friday has turned more uncertain given the interactions between another low-pressure system moving up the east coast, the old front draped across the Central peninsula, and another approaching cold front moving into the state. The trend has been for what rain chances there are to occur earlier in the day, with the secondary backup winds behind a northwest wind shift. Still, cumulus clouds and precipitation may linger into the afternoon.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

>95%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

75%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow