Cygnus NG-21 - L-1 Day
Falcon 9
Valid Period
Aug 4, 2024 15:01 - 15:12 UTC (11:01 - 11:12 ET)
Issued
Sat Aug 3, 2024 at 16:15 UTC (12:15 ET)
Forecast Discussion
Deteriorating weather conditions will continue across the Space Coast as Tropical Depression Four (TD 4) slowly makes its way from Northwest Cuba into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the system becoming a Tropical Storm Sunday and skirting the western Florida Peninsula throughout the day. The system is expected to make landfall in Florida Big Bend Monday morning and slowly drift to Southeast Georgia Monday night. The Space Coast will remain on the eastern side of the system upon its slow approach Sunday, with fast moving squalls bringing numerous rounds of heavy rain and strong winds. As a result, the Probability of Violation (POV) is very high for the initial launch window Sunday morning. For the backup launch window Monday morning, the weather will remain poor with a similar POV as deep tropical moisture lingering as the Tropical System slides into the Florida Big Bend and Northeast Florida. Winds will remain strong with tropical squalls moving through Central Florida.
Primary Launch Date
Primary Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Surface Winds
- Surface Electric Fields Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Booster Recovery Weather | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Opportunities
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Surface Winds
- Surface Electric Fields Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Booster Recovery Weather | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |