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Cygnus NG-21 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Aug 4, 2024 15:01 - 15:12 UTC (11:01 - 11:12 ET)

Issued

Sat Aug 3, 2024 at 16:15 UTC (12:15 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Deteriorating weather conditions will continue across the Space Coast as Tropical Depression Four (TD 4) slowly makes its way from Northwest Cuba into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the system becoming a Tropical Storm Sunday and skirting the western Florida Peninsula throughout the day. The system is expected to make landfall in Florida Big Bend Monday morning and slowly drift to Southeast Georgia Monday night. The Space Coast will remain on the eastern side of the system upon its slow approach Sunday, with fast moving squalls bringing numerous rounds of heavy rain and strong winds. As a result, the Probability of Violation (POV) is very high for the initial launch window Sunday morning. For the backup launch window Monday morning, the weather will remain poor with a similar POV as deep tropical moisture lingering as the Tropical System slides into the Florida Big Bend and Northeast Florida. Winds will remain strong with tropical squalls moving through Central Florida.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

10%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Winds
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

15%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Winds
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow