Cygnus NG-21 - L-1 Day
Falcon 9
Valid Period
Aug 3, 2024 15:24 - 15:34 UTC (11:24 - 11:34 ET)
Issued
Fri Aug 2, 2024 at 16:30 UTC (12:30 ET)
Forecast Discussion
Deep moisture with weak southeasterly flow will continue today, promoting sea-breeze inspired thunderstorms along the Florida east-coast this afternoon. Convective activity should push into interior Florida by the early evening hours. For the weekend weather, all eyes will remain on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four (PTC 4) as it lifts out of the Greater Antilles and into the Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the system becoming a named storm Saturday and skirting the western Florida Peninsula Sunday, potentially making landfall as a Tropical Storm anywhere from the Florida Big Bend to southwest Florida. Regardless of where the center of the storm makes landfall, the Space Coast will be on the eastern side of the system, and weather is likely to deteriorate with time from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. For the initial launch window, scattered showers are expected to approach the coastline out of the southeast and potentially move onshore. For the backup launch window, the weather is expected to be significantly worse as the center of PTC 4 nears, with higher coverage of showers and clouds, as well as higher sustained winds, and possibly even an isolated tornado.
Primary Launch Date
Primary Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Surface Electric Fields Rule
- Thick Cloud Layer Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Booster Recovery Weather | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Opportunities
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Cumulus Cloud Rule
- Thick Cloud Layer Rule
- Surface Winds
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Booster Recovery Weather | Low |
| Solar Activity | Low |