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Cygnus NG-21 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Aug 3, 2024 15:24 - 15:34 UTC (11:24 - 11:34 ET)

Issued

Fri Aug 2, 2024 at 16:30 UTC (12:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Deep moisture with weak southeasterly flow will continue today, promoting sea-breeze inspired thunderstorms along the Florida east-coast this afternoon. Convective activity should push into interior Florida by the early evening hours. For the weekend weather, all eyes will remain on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four (PTC 4) as it lifts out of the Greater Antilles and into the Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the system becoming a named storm Saturday and skirting the western Florida Peninsula Sunday, potentially making landfall as a Tropical Storm anywhere from the Florida Big Bend to southwest Florida. Regardless of where the center of the storm makes landfall, the Space Coast will be on the eastern side of the system, and weather is likely to deteriorate with time from Saturday afternoon into Sunday. For the initial launch window, scattered showers are expected to approach the coastline out of the southeast and potentially move onshore. For the backup launch window, the weather is expected to be significantly worse as the center of PTC 4 nears, with higher coverage of showers and clouds, as well as higher sustained winds, and possibly even an isolated tornado.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

10%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Surface Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow