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CRS-21 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Dec 5, 2020 16:34 - 16:45 UTC (11:34 - 11:45 ET)

Issued

Wed Dec 2, 2020 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure will dominate the weather across the Spaceport through Thursday, with temperatures gradually warming each day as winds veer to the east. In the meantime, to our west, a wave of low pressure will lift north out of the Gulf of Mexico and organize over Texas. This storm complex will drift eastward and reach the deep south Friday, with its associated cold front passing through Central Florida Saturday morning, near or during the launch window. At a minimum, scattered showers can be expected, but instability thresholds may be high enough to produce isolated thunderstorms as well. Primary weather concerns during the launch window will be Flight Thru Precipitation, Cumulus Cloud Rule, and the Thick Cloud Layer Rule. Behind the departing front, an upper level trough will begin to dive from the upper Midwest down to the southeast throughout the day Sunday, before pushing another cold front through Florida on Monday. During the backup launch window, conditions will likely be dry with few clouds, but strong upper level winds will remain. Primary weather concerns during the launch window will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherHigh
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow