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IXPE - L-2 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Dec 9, 2021 06:00 - 07:30 UTC (01:00 - 02:30 ET)

Issued

Mon Dec 6, 2021 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A weak boundary will move into Central Florida tomorrow, before high pressure builds back in on Thursday. Models are in much better agreement this system will bring an increase in cloud coverage, but only a slight increase in precipitation chances. The front will also be over the booster recovery area, increasing wind speeds and rain chance in that area. Finally, upper-level winds over the Space Coast will be near 100 knots at 35,000 feet, slightly increasing the risk for wind shear issues. The primary launch weather concerns are cumulus clouds and possible thick cloud layers associated with the weak boundary near the Spaceport. Central Florida weather remains much the same for the back-up opportunity as high pressure, which will remain over the area until the weekend, pushes out the boundary. Upper-level winds will decrease over the launch area and the front will no longer be near the booster recovery area, lessening the impact of those added risk criteria. The launch weather concerns remain a slight chance for cumulus clouds or thick clouds associated with the weak boundary.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow