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HERA - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Oct 7, 2024 14:47 - 14:57 UTC (10:47 - 10:57 ET)

Issued

Sun Oct 6, 2024 at 16:30 UTC (12:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Tropical Storm Milton currently situated in the Bay of Campeche is likely to become a major hurricane tomorrow according to the National Hurricane Center, with most guidance showing its movement across the Gulf of Mexico and into Florida Wednesday and Wednesday night. Deep moisture has already been siphoned into the state, with resultant extensive cloud cover and showers likely to continue for the primary launch day. Models suggest a subtle push of slightly drier air locally on Tuesday as moisture gets consolidated around the likely hurricane out across the Gulf, otherwise conditions deteriorate markedly Wednesday as this system reaches the state, bringing heavy rainfall and windy conditions. While conditions slowly improve later in the week as the system pushes off into the Atlantic, windy conditions accompanied by intermittent showers will continue into Thursday.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

15%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

25%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

10%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Disturbed Weather Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Solar ActivityLow