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NASA Crew-9 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Sep 28, 2024 17:12 - 17:23 UTC (13:12 - 13:23 ET)

Issued

Fri Sep 27, 2024 at 13:45 UTC (09:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

No significant changes to today’s forecast update. Helene made landfall late last night in the Big Bend region of Florida as a powerful Category 4 hurricane and has now tracked well to the north of Florida. In Helene’s wake, wind speeds will continue to decrease as the day progresses today, but a frontal boundary will stall out and concentrate moisture over Central Florida through the weekend. This feature, combined with deep southwesterly flow and diurnal heating, will increase shower and storm chances at the Spaceport on Saturday afternoon. While the highest rain/lightning chances are likely later in the afternoon, scattered showers are likely to develop over the Florida peninsula and track eastwards towards the coast around T-0. This will introduce the risk of a Cumulus Cloud Rule, Flight Through Precipitation, and Surface Electric Fields Rule violations. Overall weather conditions look very similar for both backup days as the front remains stagnant over the area, but the launch window shifting earlier will slightly improve the POV each day.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

55%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

65%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow