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NASA Crew-9 - L-2 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Sep 28, 2024 17:12 - 17:23 UTC (13:12 - 13:23 ET)

Issued

Thu Sep 26, 2024 at 13:30 UTC (09:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Today, all eyes are on Hurricane Helene as it strengthens and tracks northwards in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest NHC advisory as of this morning (26/1200Z) has Hurricane Helene making landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida as a major hurricane on Thursday evening and tracking into Tennessee by Friday. While the Space Coast will generally avoid the worst of the impacts, heavy rain from outer bands, wind gusts over 50 mph, and isolated tornadoes are expected in the area today and tonight. In Helene’s wake, wind speeds will significantly decrease as the day progresses on Friday, but the storm will leave behind a frontal boundary that will concentrate moisture over Central Florida through the weekend. This feature, combined with deep southwesterly flow and diurnal heating, will increase shower and storm chances at the Spaceport on Saturday afternoon. While the highest rain/lightning chances are likely later in the afternoon, scattered showers are likely to develop over the Florida peninsula and track eastwards towards the coast around T-0. This will introduce the risk of a Cumulus Cloud Rule, Flight Through Precipitation, and Surface Electric Fields Rule violations. Overall weather conditions look very similar for both backup days as the front remains stagnant over the area, but the launch window shifting earlier will slightly improve the POV each day.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

55%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

65%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow