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Polaris Dawn - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Sep 10, 2024 07:33 - 11:15 UTC (03:33 - 07:15 ET)

Issued

Mon Sep 9, 2024 at 16:00 UTC (12:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Florida remains in a stagnant weather pattern which is expected to last through most of the week as the stalled frontal boundary persists across the area. Low level flow will be light and variable while west-southwesterly flow aloft will keep afternoon and evening rain chances high with storms favoring the east side of the peninsula. Though chances will be highest during the day, the threat for occasional showers and storms will continue through the overnight hours, including for the primary and backup launch windows early Tuesday and Wednesday morning. However, the main threat will be the Thick Cloud Layers Rule as mid and upper level clouds stream across the Spaceport in the very saturated atmosphere created by the stalled boundary. Currently Tropical Storm Francine is expected to move into the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday, likely pulling the stalled boundary to the north. This may be enough for some slight drying going into Thursday’s morning’s window, lowering overnight precipitation chances. However, this is likely to be somewhat tempered by increased mid and high clouds escaping from the system across the state.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow