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RRT-1 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Dec 13, 2024 23:30 - 03:00 UTC (18:30 - 22:00 ET)

Issued

Thu Dec 12, 2024 at 17:15 UTC (12:15 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Strong onshore flow with coastal showers will be the weather pattern for the launch and backup days after a cold front passed through yesterday. Behind the front, a very strong area of high pressure is building into the eastern US, creating a very tight pressure gradient through the end of the week and into the weekend. This will bring elevated east-northeasterly winds along with isolated coastal showers tomorrow evening. Dry mid-level air will cap off any significant vertical development of the showers, limiting them to only a flight through concern. Because of this, the primary concerns are low-level winds approaching liftoff limits and the Cumulus Cloud Rule. Conditions look very similar for the backup day, but a surface trough in the southwestern Atlantic will bring elevated moisture to the region. Shower coverage will likely be higher and there will be less mid-level dry air to cap vertical development. Thus, the concerns remain the same with an increased probability of violation.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherHigh
Solar ActivityLow