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Polaris Dawn - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Aug 27, 2024 07:33 - 13:01 UTC (03:33 - 09:01 ET)

Issued

Mon Aug 26, 2024 at 07:45 UTC (03:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Weak low over the open Atlantic this morning will continue to move farther out to sea, taking with it the boundary that has lingered in the vicinity for the past week. The western Atlantic ridge will rebuild west later today with its axis across the staging areas into the Carolinas. For the Spaceport, this will bring a continuing pattern the next few days of prevailing onshore flow with shower and storm chances peaking around midday before most activity shifts well inland. With the early morning launch windows, Atlantic showers, along with the associated Cumulus Cloud Rule and Flight Through Precipitation, remain the main launch weather concern with the threat for any given day equally distributed across the daily launch window. The threat for showers will lower for the backup windows as a drier airmass filters in. Ascent corridor winds and seas are forecast to be favorable for the primary and initial backup day with the ridge across much of the corridor and its axis generally across the staging areas. The next system developing over the eastern US is expected to result in increasing winds along the corridor into Thursday, but for now the trend remains for the higher winds and seas to be just north of the staging areas.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow