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Polaris Dawn - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Aug 28, 2024 07:33 - 13:01 UTC (03:33 - 09:01 ET)

Issued

Tue Aug 27, 2024 at 06:30 UTC (02:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A stable pattern is expected through the end of the week as the western Atlantic ridge axis will stretch into the southeastern US in the vicinity of the staging areas. The Spaceport will continue to see prevailing onshore flow in the low to mid-levels, with dry air rotating in around a mid-level located over the Ohio River Valley. With onshore flow the east coast seabreeze will be dominant, moving quickly inland early each afternoon with shower and storm chances peaking around midday at the Spaceport before activity shifts well inland. Though passing overnight Atlantic showers can never be ruled out, with drier than normal conditions in place this threat is expected to be limited for the early morning launch windows the next few days. Cumulus Cloud Rule and Flight Through Precipitation will remain the main launch weather concerns with the threat for any given day equally distributed across the daily launch window. With the ridge axis nearly overhead, ascent corridor winds and seas will remain favorable for the primary launch opportunity. By Thursday, the next system is expected to move off the coast of the eastern US and push the ridge axis southwards, bringing increasing winds along the corridor to end the week. Models continue to keep the higher winds and seas to the north of the staging areas, but small shifts may bring stronger winds further south.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

85%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

85%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow