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SES-24 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 18, 2024 21:35 - 00:24 UTC (17:35 - 20:24 ET)

Issued

Mon Jun 17, 2024 at 17:00 UTC (13:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Predominant easterly surface flow continues over the Space Coast as the subtropical ridge axis remains over North Carolina and a tropical system develops in the western Gulf of Mexico. This prolonged onshore flow creates blustery conditions and ample low-level moisture for cumulus cloud and isolated shower development. Wind speeds may reach 25mph on the primary day, making Liftoff Winds and Cumulus Cloud Rule violations the primary concerns for tomorrow’s launch attempt. For the backup day, conditions look very similar with gusty onshore winds and surface moisture. Impacts from an incoming Atlantic easterly wave are not expected to reach the Space Coast until Thursday, however, we do begin to see more moisture creeping into the mid-levels by Wednesday evening. This will increase our probability slightly for the backup day, as more cumulus clouds and shower activity are possible, along with breezy conditions.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

55%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Lightning Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

45%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Lightning Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow