Back to Forecasts

SiriusXM 9 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

View PDF

Valid Period

Dec 5, 2024 16:10 - 17:40 UTC (11:10 - 12:40 ET)

Issued

Wed Dec 4, 2024 at 17:45 UTC (12:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The stretch of benign weather continues as a strong area of high pressure dominates the Southeastern US. Tomorrow, an approaching cold front will push the high further southeastwards, with its ridge axis centered directly over the Florida Peninsula. This will bring very favorable conditions for the primary launch day, with a negligible risk of any weather violations. On Friday, the cold front will advance from north-to-south through East Central Florida during the morning. However, model guidance continues to show a mostly dry frontal passage due to a lack of moisture and instability. Low topped cumulus clouds are still expected along the front, but dry air aloft will limit their vertical development. Additionally, behind the front a scattered mid-level cloud deck and increasing northerly winds are expected, especially later in the window. Thus, the POV is elevated compared to Thursday, with the primary concerns being Liftoff Winds, the Cumulus Cloud Rule, and Thick Cloud Layers Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

>95%
PGO

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

75%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow