Starlink 10-2 - L-1 Day

The area of low pressure that NHC is monitoring for tropical development, 90L, will continue to cross the Central Florida peninsula the rest of today before emerging off the northeast coast of Florida tomorrow morning. The ongoing showers and storms across the Spaceport will wane with sunset, though with a very moist and unstable atmosphere in place, occasional activity overnight can’t be ruled out. Most models show some degree of mid-level dry air wrapping around the low as it moves northeast, which may initially put a damper on convective development around the Spaceport. This is likely to be in conjunction with the former stationary boundary being dragged into the vicinity. How quickly this plays out will be key for weather for Thursday afternoon’s launch window. Slower movement of the boundary and low will mean better moisture lingers and more storms in the vicinity. Quicker movement brings drier conditions and stronger northeasterly flow likely focusing storms more inland of the Spaceport. Currently models suggest better launch weather at the beginning and end of the window with conditions less favorable in the middle. Anvil clouds from any activity in the vicinity will be the main weather concern. Models are reasonably in agreement that whatever flavor of surface low offshore Florida moves further away on Friday. Though moisture won’t be quite as high as earlier in the week, it will still be more than sufficient for numerous showers and storms during the afternoon. With steering flow more out of the north or northeast, there will be a tendency for this activity to drift inland of the Spaceport. However, with anvil level flow still out of the west-northwest, these will remain the primary concern with the threat diminishing through the count.