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Starlink 6-65 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Nov 30, 2024 05:00 - 09:00 UTC (00:00 - 04:00 ET)

Issued

Fri Nov 29, 2024 at 16:00 UTC (11:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A cold front is pushing through Central Florida late this morning, with a few showers and winds shifting out of the north-northwest. With an upper jet overhead and cloud/no cloud boundary setting up along the edge of the front, there will be just enough instability to kick off a few rounds of showers across the Spaceport through the afternoon, along with a minimal threat for lightning. Precip is expected to be done heading into the primary launch window at midnight, but the question of clouds remains. Most models still show an extensive post-frontal cloud deck hanging around, potentially flirting with the freezing level, and thus becoming a launch weather concern. Factors that play into this will also include how quickly winds above the surface swing out of the north-northeast and reinforce the post-frontal inversion. The most problematic cloud decks will push south through the window, though a low-topped stratocumulus deck will likely remain. Post-frontal winds will also be a watch item, though the strongest winds will occur a few hours ahead of the window with speeds, while remaining breezy, diminishing through the late night. Recent models suggest a developing coastal trough/area of convergence just off the coast on Saturday. This will enhance the cumulus/stratocumulus deck and trigger occasional Atlantic showers that will continue into the backup window late Saturday night. While this activity is expected to be low topped, the cooling temperatures aloft will make reaching +5°C or 0°C achievable for any overperforming clouds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

85%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow-Mod
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow