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NASA CRS-24 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Dec 21, 2021 10:01 - 10:11 UTC (05:01 - 05:11 ET)

Issued

Mon Dec 20, 2021 at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Yesterday’s frontal boundary is currently stalled out just to the south of the state this morning as the anticipated Gulf Low is taking shape over the western Gulf of Mexico. As the low tracks east today, it will bring the frontal boundary northwards towards the Spaceport by this evening. Through the remainder of the day, expect onshore moving showers, increasing in coverage along with better chances for storms later today as the boundary lifts north. Gusty showers and storms will accompany the warm front overnight, along with extensive mid and upper level cloudiness across the area ahead of the main low. Less than favorable conditions are expected for the primary launch window early Tuesday morning, with the main concerns associated with this weather being the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Thick Cloud Layer Rule, and Surface Electric Field Rule. The Gulf Low is expected to move across Central Florida on Tuesday accompanied by a few strong storms before moving into the Atlantic late in the day. Breezy west-northwest winds will wrap chilly and dry air around the low into the area as the low moves east, allowing for improvement in conditions into the backup launch window early Wednesday morning. The main concerns will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule as cumulus and stratocumulus wrap around the backside of the low.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

30%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherHigh
Solar ActivityLow