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NASA CRS-24 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Dec 21, 2021 10:01 - 10:11 UTC (05:01 - 05:11 ET)

Issued

Sat Dec 18, 2021 at 14:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

An unsettled pattern will be in place across Central Florida and the Spaceport for the first half of the upcoming week as a frontal boundary arrives in the state on Sunday and stalls out by early Monday. South-southeasterly flow will bring scattered showers and a few storms each day through Monday along the stalled boundary, before a surface low develops along the boundary in the Gulf of Mexico. Models differ on exactly where it crosses the state, and how strong this low will be when it does on Tuesday. However, confidence in increased shower and storm coverage along with extensive mid-level cloud cover bringing less than favorable conditions for the primary launch attempt early Tuesday morning is high. The main concerns associated with this weather will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Thick Cloud Layer Rule, and Surface Electric Field Rule. The low is forecast to move across the state and into the Atlantic by late Tuesday. There will be an opportunity for breezy west-northwest winds to wrap drier air around the low into the Spaceport as the low moves east, allowing for some improvement in conditions into the backup launch window early Wednesday morning. The main concerns will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Thick Cloud Layer Rule with any fast moving lingering activity.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow