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Starlink 13-1 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jan 21, 2025 05:13 - 09:13 UTC (00:13 - 04:13 ET)

Issued

Mon Jan 20, 2025 at 15:45 UTC (10:45 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Sunday’s cold front has stalled out over the Florida Straits this morning, allowing a drier, cooler, and breezy airmass to enter the Spaceport. The forecast question for the primary launch window late tonight will be how quickly clouds and rain return to the area as the old frontal boundary lifts back to the north. There remains good model agreement that the highest rain chances hold off until after the end of the window, but still expect increasing clouds and showers to creep in from the south, especially for the back half of the window. With this setup, the main weather concern is likely to be Thick Cloud Layers, with a smaller embedded Cumulus Cloud threat as rain coverage increases late. An unusual all-day rain event is on tap for Tuesday as area of low pressure develops somewhere along the east coast of Florida on the stalled frontal boundary. The gradient between the high to the north and the developing low will bring strong winds near gale force heading into the backup window Tuesday Night, though specific speeds at the Spaceport will depend on exactly where the low and associated boundary develop. Wet and windy conditions persist through the backup window, resulting in a very high threat for Liftoff Winds, Thick Cloud Layers, and Disturbed Weather Rule violations.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

85%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

10%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Disturbed Weather Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow-Mod
Solar ActivityLow