Back to Forecasts

Starlink 12-12 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

View PDF

Valid Period

Jan 10, 2025 15:27 - 19:27 UTC (10:27 - 14:27 ET)

Issued

Thu Jan 9, 2025 at 14:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Cool and dry conditions will continue to end the week as the surface high currently across the Great Plains moves east. Winds will veer out of the east bringing onshore a few stratocumulus or cumulus clouds, but these look too warm to be of any concern. Currently there are no significant weather concerns for the primary launch window late morning Friday. A Gulf system will move rapidly eastward late Friday into Saturday, dragging a cold front through Central Florida late morning into the early afternoon hours. Models have sped up the frontal timing has compared to yesterday, with the front and any associated precip now forecast to arrive just before the window open and push through during the first part of the window. A few models are even faster and have even thin out the cloud cover across the Spaceport by the window end. The tradeoff is lower sustained winds, but higher gusts can’t be ruled out, especially with any showers, as winds just above the surface remain higher. The threat for any lightning remains very low. The main threats for the backup window late Saturday morning will be Cumulus Clouds with any showers, Thick Clouds associated with the mid to high clouds with the frontal band, and Liftoff Winds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

>95%
PGO

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow