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NASA Crew-2 - L-2 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Apr 23, 2021 09:44 - 09:55 UTC (05:44 - 05:55 ET)

Issued

Wed Apr 21, 2021 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A pattern shift is underway as the pesky frontal boundary stalled over Central Florida finally pushes south as high pressure builds in. By Thursday morning, the high pressure will be centered near Arkansas, creating gusty northerly winds along the Space Coast due to the pressure gradient between the high and the departing boundary. By Friday morning, the high center will move over the Carolinas, allowing winds to diminish and turn easterly. The primary concern will be Flight Through Precipitation from isolated, low-topped coastal showers and onshore flow. As the high pressure area continues to slide east, a new frontal system makes its way into the southern states on Saturday, pushing off the coast Sunday. This will bring another front through Central Florida Sunday with isolated showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. High pressure will build into the area on Monday the 26th, pushing the unsettled weather south of the Spaceport as dry air filters in. The primary weather concerns for a Monday morning attempt are Flight Through Precipitation and the Cumulus Cloud Rule in the event the boundary is still in the area. On Tuesday, high pressure continues to move east, turning winds easterly along the Space Coast, keeping conditions favorable. The primary concerns remain Flight Through Precipitation and the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityModerate

Backup Opportunities

First Back-up

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow
Second Back-up

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow