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NASA Crew-3 - L-0 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Nov 10, 2021 01:58 - 02:08 UTC (20:58 - 21:08 ET)

Issued

Wed Nov 10, 2021 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A large area of high pressure across the eastern US will continue its slide into the Atlantic, with deepening easterly flow bringing more clouds into the coast. Passing light showers will be possible through the afternoon and into the launch window. The main weather concerns for this evening’s launch will be Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation associated with this activity. The next storm system will wind up across the northern tier of the US, bringing another cold front through the eastern third of the US late week. Deeper moisture arrives as flow becomes southerly, along with better chances for showers, and potentially a storm, Thursday afternoon and evening across Central Florida. Some of this activity may push east off the coast near the Spaceport late evening as steering flow becomes southwesterly. Cumulus Clouds, Flight Through Precipitation, and the Surface Electric Field Rule will all be a concern for a Thursday evening launch attempt. Models have trended towards a pre-frontal boundary moving through Friday afternoon, bringing slightly better weather conditions by the Friday evening launch window. Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation will be the main launch concerns Friday night.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow