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NASA Crew-3 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Nov 10, 2021 01:58 - 02:08 UTC (20:58 - 21:08 ET)

Issued

Tue Nov 9, 2021 at 15:30 UTC (10:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure centered across the southeastern US will continue to move east over the next day, bringing a few more clouds into the coast from the Atlantic. Similar conditions will continue into the Wednesday night launch window, with a little more moisture bringing a few more clouds and a passing sprinkle. The main weather concern for the primary launch window will be Cumulus Clouds. The next storm system will move across the northern tier of the US late week, bringing another cold front through the eastern third of the US on Thursday and Friday. Deepening southerly flow ahead of this system will bring more clouds and a better chance for Atlantic showers, and possibly a storm, in the vicinity of the Spaceport for the backup window Thursday night. The main launch concerns for Thursday night will be Cumulus Clouds, Flight Through Precipitation, and the Surface Electric Field Rule. A pre-frontal boundary will move through Florida late Friday into Saturday, accompanied by scattered showers Friday afternoon that will linger into the evening. Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation will be the main launch concerns Friday night, but the threat for lightning storms in the area and the Surface Electric Field Rule will remain.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow