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NASA Crew-3 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Nov 10, 2021 01:58 - 02:08 UTC (20:58 - 21:08 ET)

Issued

Mon Nov 8, 2021 at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure centered across the Ohio River Valley this morning will slide southeast over the next two days, keeping the Spaceport in dry and cool conditions. Winds veer off the Atlantic into Tuesday as the high moves east, bringing a few more clouds and sprinkles into the coast. This pattern will continue into the primary launch window Wednesday night, and the main launch concern will be onshore moving Cumulus Clouds. By Thursday, deepening southeasterly flow will bring a better chance for Atlantic showers in the vicinity of the Spaceport for the backup window. The main launch concerns for Thursday night will be Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation. The next storm system moves across the northern tier of the US late week, bringing another cold front through the eastern third of the US. Models have come into better agreement with the timing of the front as it approaches Florida. Scattered showers are expected Friday afternoon ahead of the front, lingering into Friday evening. Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation will be the main launch concerns for the secondary backup window Friday night, but more unstable conditions will also bring the Surface Electric Field Rule into play.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow