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NASA Crew-3 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Nov 3, 2021 05:05 - 05:15 UTC (01:05 - 01:15 ET)

Issued

Mon Nov 1, 2021 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A broad surface high encompassing much of the eastern and southeastern US will slide eastward early this week, allowing the pleasant fall weather to continue across the Spaceport. Low level flow becomes northeasterly off the Atlantic, allowing for a gradual increase in moisture, clouds, and light Atlantic showers. The main concerns for the primary launch window early Wednesday morning will be Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation with low-topped onshore moving showers. Deepening onshore flow, a weak boundary sliding into the state, and some upper level energy will allow for more robust Atlantic showers into the backup window early on Thursday. The main concerns for this launch attempt will be Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation with onshore moving showers. A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary late on Thursday, leading to unsettled conditions across the Spaceport by Friday morning. As this system takes shape, expect less favorable launch conditions as mid and upper level clouds increase along with scattered showers and the potential for a few storms.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow