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NASA Crew-3 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Oct 31, 2021 06:16 - 06:26 UTC (02:16 - 02:26 ET)

Issued

Fri Oct 29, 2021 at 11:30 UTC (07:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A large and mature storm system continues to meander across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this morning. It will move slowly to the northeast over the next day, with breezy west winds and unsettled and showery conditions across the Spaceport through the first part of Saturday. As the low gets further away from Florida, cool and dry conditions will filter into the region Saturday afternoon leading to favorable launch conditions for the initial opportunity early Sunday morning. Lingering low level moisture will bring low-topped Cumulus Clouds, which will be the main concern, along with a few light showers and Flight Through Precipitation. However, no significant precipitation or cloud development is expected. A large area of high pressure builds in over the eastern US early next week behind the departing low, bringing several days of seasonably cool and dry weather across Central Florida. By the backup launch opportunity on Wednesday, onshore flow will bring better chances for low topped showers into the coast, keeping Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation as the main concerns.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryHigh
Booster RecoveryModerate
Solar ActivityModerate

Backup Opportunities

72-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster RecoveryLow
Solar ActivityLow