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NASA Crew-3 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Nov 9, 2021 01:58 - 02:08 UTC (20:58 - 21:08 ET)

Issued

Sun Nov 7, 2021 at 13:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Strong surface low off the coast of the Carolinas this morning moves out into the open Atlantic early this week as high pressure builds across the eastern third of the US. The Spaceport will continue to see dry, cool, and breezy conditions as a result for the first half of the week. Low level winds will veer off the Atlantic as the high moves east, bringing a few more clouds into the coast. This pattern will continue into the primary launch window Wednesday night, and the main launch concern will be onshore moving Cumulus Clouds. The high will slide out into the Atlantic on Thursday, bringing increasing moisture and clouds along with isolated showers in the vicinity for the backup window Thursday night. The main launch concerns for Thursday night will be Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation. The next storm system moves across the northern tier of the US late week, bringing another cold front through the eastern third of the US and approaching Florida late on Friday. There are some timing differences between models with this boundary, but overall expect better coverage of showers, and therefore a higher risk of Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation, for the secondary backup window Friday night.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor RecoveryModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow