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NASA Crew-3 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Oct 31, 2021 06:16 - 06:26 UTC (02:16 - 02:26 ET)

Issued

Thu Oct 28, 2021 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

A strong low pressure system is wrapping up across the Mid-Mississippi Valley this morning, with its associated cold front pushing a squall line through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and towards the west coast of Florida. This line is expected to push through the state into the Spaceport later this afternoon, bringing strong to severe thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall before it exits late evening. The parent storm system will become increasingly large and slow to move into the northeastern US, keeping conditions unsettled and showery across the Spaceport through the first part of Saturday. As the low gets further away from Florida, drier conditions will filter in leading to favorable launch conditions for the initial launch opportunity. The main concerns will be Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation, though this activity is expected to be low-topped, light, and not a significant concern. Weakening high pressure over the eastern US will be in place for the backup launch opportunity on Wednesday. Onshore flow will bring a few more low topped showers into the coast, keeping Cumulus Clouds and Flight Through Precipitation as the main concerns.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherHigh
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

72-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Ascent Corridor WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow