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Sirius XM-8 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 6, 2021 04:25 - 06:26 UTC (00:25 - 02:26 ET)

Issued

Sat Jun 5, 2021 at 12:15 UTC (08:15 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The larger pattern across Florida continues to be dominated by the western Atlantic ridge this morning, with its axis located somewhere just north of the Cape. Light southerly flow is in place at the low levels, which will provide no impediment to the east coast sea breeze, and associated showers and storms, developing and moving inland early this afternoon. Ongoing showers and storms are expected to be well inland of the Spaceport before sunset, with mid and upper level winds bringing back convective debris clouds and anvil remnants back to the coast for the primary launch late night window. A few Atlantic showers and cumulus in the vicinity cannot be ruled out, but this no longer looks like the main concern. The ridge axis lifts further north on Sunday, deepening the southeasterly flow and bringing in a slightly drier airmass. The east coast sea breeze will more quickly inland across the peninsula during the afternoon. Slightly lower rain chances will be on tap Sunday afternoon, leading to overall better conditions into the backup launch window late Sunday night. The primary concerns will be any convective debris from earlier activity, and a small threat for cumulus associated with a stray Atlantic shower.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Debris Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Debris Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow