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Sirius XM-8 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 6, 2021 04:25 - 06:26 UTC (00:25 - 02:26 ET)

Issued

Fri Jun 4, 2021 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Deep tropical moisture will continue to stream across Florida to end the week, as the axis of the western Atlantic ridge remains just to the north. A slower inland moving East Coast sea breeze will bring higher rain and storm chances to the Spaceport during the afternoons today and tomorrow, with the threat for late night and early morning onshore moving Atlantic showers remaining. For Saturday, showers and storms are expected to inland of the Spaceport before sunset, with lingering mid and upper level convective debris clouds around for the primary launch late night window. A few Atlantic showers and cumulus in the vicinity cannot be ruled out. The ridge axis lifts north on Sunday as the boundary dissipates. This will deepen the southeasterly flow, bring a slightly drier airmass, and push the east coast sea breeze more quickly inland across the peninsula. Slightly lower rain chances will be on tap Sunday afternoon, leading overall better conditions into the backup launch window late Sunday night. The primary concerns will be any convective debris from earlier activity, and a small threat for cumulus associated with a stray Atlantic shower.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Debris Cloud Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Debris Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow