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Sirius XM-8 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jun 6, 2021 04:25 - 06:26 UTC (00:25 - 02:26 ET)

Issued

Thu Jun 3, 2021 at 12:00 UTC (08:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

The axis of the western Atlantic ridge will continue to wobble just to the north of the area the next few days, continuing to allow deep tropical moisture to stream across the region through the end of the week. Lighter southerly steering flow will bring a slower inland moving East Coast sea breeze, along with higher rain and storm chances to the Spaceport in the afternoons. However, the threat for late night and early morning onshore moving Atlantic showers will continue. A weakening boundary will make it into North Florida on Saturday, giving a boost to the development of afternoon showers and storms. Activity is expected to diminish along the east coast by sunset leaving lingering convective debris for the primary launch window late Saturday night. A few Atlantic showers cannot be ruled out with the lingering boundary aided instability. The ridge axis lifts north during the day on Sunday as the boundary dissipates, deepening the southeasterly flow and pushing the east coast sea breeze more quickly across the peninsula early in the afternoon. Drier conditions look on tap leading into the backup launch window late Sunday night with only the threat for cumulus associated with a stray Atlantic shower.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Debris Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow