Back to Forecasts

Starlink 4-1 - L-3 Days

Falcon 9

View PDF

Valid Period

Nov 12, 2021 12:01 - 13:01 UTC (07:01 - 08:01 ET)

Issued

Tue Nov 9, 2021 at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure centered over the southeast US this morning will maintain mostly dry conditions throughout the day. As the high pushes into the Atlantic, winds will become more easterly and trigger increased chances for light showers along the coast tonight through Wednesday morning. By Thursday, established southeasterly flow will bring a better chance for Atlantic showers in the vicinity of the Spaceport. The next storm system moves across the northern tier of the US late this week, bringing another cold front through the eastern third of the US. Abundant moisture and vertical forcing along a pre-frontal trough will spur the development of thick low-level cloud layers, making Thick Clouds and Disturbed Weather the main launch concerns for the primary launch window Friday morning. Winds turning northwesterly will bring a drier Saturday morning to the Spaceport, reducing cloud coverage and precipitation chances through the backup launch window until the front reaches the area. High pressure is expected to build in the wake of the front, bringing cooler and drier air through the rest of the weekend. The main concerns for the 24-hour backup launch window remain Thick Clouds and Disturbed Weather due to trough and frontal passage timing variability.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Disturbed Weather Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Disturbed Weather Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow