Starlink L-17 - L-2 Days
Falcon 9
Valid Period
Feb 2, 2021 11:09 - 11:30 UTC (06:09 - 06:30 ET)
Issued
Sun Jan 31, 2021 at 14:30 UTC (09:30 ET)
Forecast Discussion
High pressure exits to our east today as an energetic low pressure system approaches the Southeastern US from the Midwest. Temperatures will be warmer today in the upper 70s as southwesterly winds increase ahead of the approaching cold front. Rain chances will increase after sunset tonight but will be highest from midnight to 6 AM across the Spaceport, ending abruptly with the frontal passage just before sunrise Monday morning. Thunderstorms will be possible with the passing front, but weak instability will keep storm coverage isolated at best. Behind the front, a strong upper level trough will dig into the deep south, maximizing cold air advection across the state as windy northwest flow continues. Clouds will gradually decrease in coverage across the Spaceport, but moisture wrapping around the low off the Carolinas will keep a stratocumulus deck in place Monday and into Tuesday, present during the launch window. Due to the very low freezing heights, there is a small possibility of a Thick Cloud Layer Rule violation should any of these clouds become sufficiently tall. However, the primary concern for the launch window will be Liftoff Winds due to sustained flow out of the west-northwest near 30 mph. Temperatures will be near 40 degrees during expected liftoff. Conditions improve Tuesday into early Wednesday as the strong low pressure system accelerates from the Mid-Atlantic Coastline to New England. The local pressure gradient will begin to gradually relax, allowing winds to slowly decrease across the Spaceport. Northwest flow will remain in place, keeping temperatures below average. Cloud coverage should be on the downtrend with the departing low as well. For the backup launch window, the main question will be how much the pressure gradient loosens by the opening of the launch window. The primary concern will again be Liftoff Winds. Temperatures may be in the upper 30s during the backup window.
Primary Launch Date
Primary Window
Primary Concerns
- Liftoff Winds
- Thick Cloud Layer Rule
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Moderate |
| Booster Recovery Weather | High |
| Solar Activity | Low |
Backup Opportunities
Backup Window
Primary Concerns
- Liftoff Winds
Additional Risk Criteria
| Criteria | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Upper-Level Wind Shear | Low |
| Booster Recovery Weather | High |
| Solar Activity | Low |