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Starlink 10-38 -

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 1, 2026 17:33 - 21:33 UTC (13:33 - 17:33 ET)

Issued

Thu Apr 30, 2026 at 17:00 UTC (13:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Forecast Discussion: A ridge axis over the Gulf will slowly migrate eastward into the Atlantic on today, as a frontal boundary pushes into southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Over the Spaceport, warmer temperatures and westerly flow will continue for the end of the week before the frontal passage early Sunday morning. For the launch window on Friday, showers may develop along the sea breeze which will be pinned to the coastline due to offshore flow. The Cumulus Cloud Rule will be the primary concern with sea breeze development, with secondary Thick Cloud Layers Rule concerns due to the boundary proximity to the north. On Saturday, a low-pressure center will develop along the Carolina Coastline and drag a cold front across central Florida overnight into Sunday morning. Increased winds and showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible along the boundary. Ahead of the front, sea breeze-enhanced shower development is possible during backup opportunity, making the Cumulus Cloud Rule the primary concern toward the beginning of the window, with increased probability for thick clouds as upper-level moisture increases later in the window. Prefrontal winds will also be elevated, causing slight concern for liftoff winds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layers Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layers Rule
  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow