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Starlink L-17 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Jan 31, 2021 11:52 - 12:13 UTC (06:52 - 07:13 ET)

Issued

Fri Jan 29, 2021 at 14:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

High pressure will build across the Southeastern US today and linger through Saturday, creating beautiful weather for the Spaceport. Breezy conditions will gradually subside this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes from north to south. Northerly winds will veer to the east Saturday, moderating cool temperatures back to seasonal normals. On Sunday, high pressure exits into the western Atlantic as a low pressure system organizes over the Carolinas. The Spaceport will be within the warm sector of the approaching storm system during the primary launch window. However, favorable weather is expected, with most clouds lacking the vertical extent needed to become sufficiently electrified. Southwesterly winds will increase to near 20 miles per hour (up to 200 feet) in response to the tightening pressure gradient. The primary concern will be the Cumulus Cloud Rule for a launch attempt Sunday morning. Late Sunday and early Monday, an upper level trough will dig into the Southeastern US, pushing the low pressure system into the western Atlantic. A cold front associated with the low pressure system will slide through the Florida Peninsula, potentially passing the Spaceport near or prior to the launch window. Scattered showers are expected in the wake of the passing boundary, but the main concern will be escalating winds, which may be sustained near 30 mph (up to 200 feet). As a result, the primary concern during the backup launch window will be Liftoff Winds, with the Cumulus Cloud Rule a distant second.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearModerate
Booster Recovery WeatherHigh
Solar ActivityLow