CRS-34 - L-1 Day

Forecast Discussion: Today’s forecast has trended significantly less favorable for both the primary and backup launch attempts. A lingering boundary remains stalled across North Florida, along with upper-level troughing and deep moisture over the peninsula. The set-up today is similar to yesterday’s, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible in East Central Florida this afternoon and evening. By tonight, another front will overtake the stalled boundary, and it will push through much of the state during the day tomorrow. This morning’s model runs have trended slower with the front’s southward progression, leading to deeper moisture and higher shower/thunderstorm coverage in East Central Florida tomorrow afternoon and evening. As a result, the Probability of Violating weather constraints has increased for tomorrow evening’s attempt, with the main concerns being the Cumulus Cloud Rule, Anvil Cloud Rules, Surface Electric Fields Rule, and Flight Through Precipitation. A slow drying trend will take place each subsequent day as the week progresses, though not enough to completely shut off precipitation chances for the Spaceport, especially as the active upper-level pattern continues. Expect at least isolated showers and storms each afternoon/evening with the east coast sea breeze, with a higher coverage on Wednesday compared to Thursday.