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CRS-34 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

May 15, 2026 21:55 - 22:15 UTC (17:55 - 18:15 ET)

Issued

Thu May 14, 2026 at 17:30 UTC (13:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Forecast Discussion: High pressure will build over central Florida through Friday, creating drier conditions across the Spaceport. Although any showers that develop are expected to remain south of the Spaceport, there is a small risk of a Cumulus Cloud Rule violation for the primary launch attempt. For the backup day, an upper-level shortwave trough will increase instability and potential for sea breeze activity. Showers should push inland toward Orlando by late Saturday afternoon, with weak upper-level northwesterly flow possibly nudging storm anvils toward the pad. This will cause concern for the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Anvil Cloud Rules for back up opportunity. On Sunday, additional moisture arrives, increasing the chances of showers. Much of the thunderstorm activity will be on the west coast by late in the day, as easterly flow will drive the east coast sea breeze across the state. However, cumulus cloud growth and possible anvils will be a watch item for the second back up opportunity.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow
48-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Anvil Cloud Rules

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow