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Starlink L-17 - L-2 Days

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Feb 4, 2021 10:26 - 10:46 UTC (05:26 - 05:46 ET)

Issued

Tue Feb 2, 2021 at 17:00 UTC (12:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Cold and windy conditions will intensify today as the upper level trough axis digs across Florida. Northwesterly winds near 30 mph will maximize cold air advection, dragging cold continental air across the Deep South down the spine of Florida. Highs today will struggle to reach the 50s despite skies becoming sunny in the afternoon. At the surface, the low pressure system off the Carolina coast will slowly meander northward to the mid- Atlantic and then New England through Wednesday. This slow motion will continue to maintain a tight pressure gradient though Wednesday morning. The forecast is on track for significantly improvement Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as high pressure builds over the Florida Peninsula. Expect nearly clear skies with gradually decreasing winds near or below 10 miles per hour. Conditions will be ideal for launch early Thursday morning with only a very slight concern for liftoff winds if the low pressure area moves out slower than forecast. Thursday into Thursday night, the high pressure area quickly slides east, creating south to southeast winds along the Space Coast. This generates a slight chance for a cumulus cloud violation with Gulf Stream showers early Friday morning. However, a weak frontal boundary will approach the Deep South Friday morning, causing winds to gradually increase during the backup launch window. As a result, the primary concern for the backup window will be Liftoff Winds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

90%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherMod-Low
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

70%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow