SXM-11 -

Forecast Discussion: Surface ridge axis just south of the Spaceport moves slightly north today into tomorrow, before getting shunted back south Sunday into early next week as an area of low pressure forms across the Carolinas. Flow aloft will be weak, with a slight onshore component developing over the weekend. While afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are possible in our area the next couple of days, the focus for activity is likely to shift to the central and western part of the peninsula during the later evening and overnight hours while associated clouds thin through the night. Thus, generally favorable weather is expected for the primary launch window. The risk of weather violations appears higher for the backup launch opportunity as the Carolina low pressure area dents our ridge and drags a front into north Florida, although there remains considerable model inconsistency on any one solution at this time.