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NASA Crew-1 - L-0 Forecast

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Nov 15, 2020 00:22 - 00:32 UTC (19:22 - 19:32 ET)

Issued

Sun Nov 15, 2020 at 14:00 UTC (09:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Diffuse frontal boundary that had been stalled across South Florida is lifting north across the state this morning, with some disagreement in the short-range models as to if it will reach back to the Spaceport. However, it will be close enough to lend its instability and kick off more showers through this afternoon. The disruption of the large scale wind pattern by the boundary will allow an Atlantic sea breeze to develop. This would initially shift most precipitation inland, but steering flow would push activity back towards the coast late evening. The primary launch weather concerns will be cumulus clouds and precipitation associated with the showers in the vicinity, along with electric fields from any more robust showers. The next system moving over the southeastern US will leave another front stuck across the Florida peninsula to start the upcoming week, with a strong area of high pressure pushing across the eastern third of the country clearing it through Central Florida by Tuesday. This will setup a relatively stable atmosphere that will be in place for the remainder of the week with gusty northeasterly winds. The primary weather concern for the delay launch window mid-week will be the gusty winds and scattered cumulus clouds.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

50%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Flight Through Precipitation
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherLow
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

72-Hour Delay

Backup Window

80%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Liftoff Winds
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow