Back to Forecasts

Starlink L-19 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

View PDF

Valid Period

Feb 13, 2021 04:32 - 04:53 UTC (23:32 - 23:53 ET)

Issued

Fri Feb 12, 2021 at 14:30 UTC (09:30 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Southerly flow ahead of an approaching front will continue to usher in unseasonably warm and moist air today and through the weekend. The front will stall out over northern Florida tomorrow, keeping Central Florida warm and humid. The boundary will remain fairly stationary Saturday night and Sunday, which will focus the worst conditions just to our north. However, the southerly flow in our area ahead of the boundary will continue to pump in plentiful moisture along with the potential for evening showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday. Thus, the primary concerns for Saturday are the Thick Cloud Layer Rule due to high moisture content in the mid-levels, as well as the Cumulus Cloud Rule and the Surface Electric Field Rule due to lingering evening convection. For the backup day, the front is expected to waver slightly southwards, but will still remain north of the area. It will be a fairly similar setup to Saturday night, with a high moisture levels leading to the threat for mid-level cloud cover, showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Therefore, the primary concerns remain the same for the backup day.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule
  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow