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Starlink-19 - L-1 Day

Falcon 9

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Valid Period

Feb 14, 2021 04:10 - 04:31 UTC (23:10 - 23:31 ET)

Issued

Sat Feb 13, 2021 at 18:00 UTC (13:00 ET)

Forecast Discussion

Space Launch Delta 45

Continued southerly flow ahead of a frontal system will maintain unseasonably warm and moist conditions across Central Florida. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop as the front stalls to the north. On Sunday the front is expected to remain in the area with another round of thunderstorms likely across the Space Coast. The unsettled weather should diminish over the Spaceport by evening, but some convection could linger into the launch window. The primary weather concerns for Sunday are the Cumulus Cloud Rule and Surface Electric Field rule associated with the convection as well as the Thick Cloud Layer Rule associated with the frontal cloudiness. On Monday, a strong low pressure area will organize in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This will pull the boundary further north, lowering the threat of organized convection over the Spaceport. The primary weather concern for a launch attempt Monday evening is the Cumulus Cloud Rule.

Primary Launch Date

Launch Day

Primary Window

40%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule
  • Surface Electric Fields Rule
  • Thick Cloud Layer Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow

Backup Opportunities

24-Hour Delay

Backup Window

60%
PGO

Primary Concerns

  • Cumulus Cloud Rule

Additional Risk Criteria

CriteriaRisk Level
Upper-Level Wind ShearLow
Booster Recovery WeatherModerate
Solar ActivityLow